Sunday, May 18, 2008

The Changing Equation of World Oil Supply

The opening post for the quiet inception of my blogs in this little unnoticed corner of the blogosphere is about non other than OIL, the world resource numero uno.

This natural resource has brought tremendous wealth for nations that understood its economic significance, and no sovereignty reigning supreme can afford to under-estimate the importance of secure supply and all-price-necessary protection of it. It has led to political conflicts, economic hits, and numerous wars. Oil has been, is and will remain the KING till last drop.

Peak Oil alarmists have been vocal for decades over the eventual decline, pointing to numerous data and evidence pointing to production decline and depletion of remaining reservoirs, but more efficient technologies and continuing discoveries of oil fields have so far kept up the needed production to meet the increasing consumption. Yet, some truly disturbing clues have surfaced in the past few years, most significant of all is the blunt US military operations in Iraq, which holds the world number 3 oil reserve, along with the declining oil production of the top two giant oil fields in the world, namely Ghawar of Saudis Arabia and Cantrell of Mexico.

Some argue that improving technology can change the production analysis, some hypothesize that the oil-producing nations are purposely gouging the consumers, and some simply believe there is enough oil to last another century more. Yet, the latest Saudis' polite but unwavering refusal to increase oil production output continues the string of endless warning signs. Needless to say the drumbeat of Peak Oil believers just got a bit louder, that the Saudis oil is running out.

Whether of not Peak Oil is largely a myth is becoming less relevant in the rapidly changing global political arena. No world leader dares to take an indifferent or complacent stance over oil supply regardless of its supposed abundance, and serious political juxtaposition has already begun over the known major oil fields around the world, from Iraq to Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Sudan and even little unknown Nigeria. From the way subtle and obvious conflicts have arisen, we would have thought as if the oil supply should run out in less then 50 years time.

This political trend is not surprising, and easily predicted by vigilant individuals who follow world news. A strongly emerging China and India three billions people strong are dramatically adding to oil consumption, and the two nations are projected to become the main drivers of oil demand through 2030. Sensing stronger political clout through it oil exports, President Mahmūd Ahmadinejād of Iran and Hugo Chávez of Venezuela have been turning up the anti-US rhetorics, the latest of which attacks the weakening US dollar as the petro-currency and advocates a switch to Euros. All oil-thirst nations are showing signs of nervousness, and none is more obvious than consumption-heavy Japan whose top leaders are taking the unusual step in visiting oil-producing nations such as Iraq and Russia to establish a closer tie. US too is facing legitimate and serious challenges for its high-flying high-energy economy, and no evidence is more convincing than the weakening US dollar as the world currency.

Sifting through all news and information, my conclusion is a simple and a most sensible one. Debates over the end of world oil supply simply amounts to "WHEN?" Uncertainty of the impending crisis alone is enough for fears and concerns to permeate into political, economic and military policies. This situation can only become worse by the rise of emerging nations and increasing world consumption. Oil price will continue to trend upward, and oil politics will intensify further.

Energy issue will become world concern number one.

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