Thursday, May 22, 2008

The Emergence of New US Lifestyle and Infratructure

Although social changes have always been a natural part of human progress, but the latest oil price surge is bringing about a change that just seems uniquely different. Rather than issues of human rights, ideals or spirit, it is simply about a limited natural resource dictating the necessary adaptation. No logic, clever scheme or strategy can maneuver away from the eventual decline of oil.

Human beings became dependent on oil, and thus will have to find a way to prepare for the change without it. Before the end-of-oil alarm sounds too loud, the burden of escalating cost of this precious fuel is the immediate backlash.

For decades the prospering middle class has grown accustomed to living in the suburbs and long commutes, and the popularity of SUVs in the past decade underscores the belief that affordable gas will continue to be the norm. But the prelude of the change came abruptly at the beginning of this year, when the US financial crisis triggered a price run in the commodity. Crude oil broke above $100 per barrel and marched nonstop to $130 - the national average gas price reported by AAA stands at $3.83 per gallon just before the Memorial weekend.

Our government is no longer able to flex the political muscle around the world to import cheap gas entitled to us. Interestingly, US still has one of the lowest gas price in the world, but it is our lifestyle and the long-distance commute that is punishing us for the choices we made.

As usual the king of the hill is never willing to concede the change - the big oil and the auto-industry are resisting, and continue the usual lobbying to maintain status-quo. But falling they will for certain and the auto-industry is already ailing, forcing to abandon gas-guzzlers over the more fuel-efficient models for the survival of its business. The rising gas prices have impacted the behavior of the motorists, and SUVs are the latest big ticket discretionary to join the long list of retail graveyard.

The big oil still makes record profit, and may continue to do so until the last drop after which a sudden death may become of oil industry. Whether that is 50 or 100 years from now, the current reality of the high cost hitting the wallet is what drives the change in consumers.

Hybrid cars can only be a part of the solution. The continual high cost of living will eventually make owning a car economically unsound regardless of its fuel-efficiency. A "Green Tightening" will result in opposite of the urban sprawl.

The change will be slow and painful, but will necessarily come.

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