Saturday, May 24, 2008

The Dusk of Boomernomics

The old adage "when it rains it pours" is befitting of the perfect financial storm besieging the mighty US economy. One may wonder the freakish coincidental alignment of so many rare events, but perhaps there is a perfectly understandable cause at the root of all these.

Consequently, we may be witnessing the beginning of the end of Boomeronomics.

Was it a mere coincidence that a financial disaster of historic proportion happened at the same year when boomers officially reached retirement age? On Feb 12, 2008, the first baby boomer Kathleen Casey-Kirschling, born one second after midnight on January 1, 1956, became also the first to receive a Social Security retirement benefit.

Boomers are strength in number, with a little help from postwar economic booms, and are now ready to retire. They are progressive, highly educated, and they have a sense of entitlement and optimism unlike all previous generations. They have amassed an amount of wealth not likely matched by following generations. All policies since the 50s, political or economic, are essentially made from the boomer perspective for boomers.

But the booming Boomernomics came with a darker side. It is no secret that the ultra American wealth is created via rising national debt, a strong US dollar as world currency, and the ability to wield its clout in garnering cheap resources from around the world. Each successful gain brings forth more wealth trickling down to make Americans more prosperous, and a stronger economy can repeat the same process to reap further wealth. This feeding-cycle has been happening for decades often at the expenses of other economies, and it seems the god-bless US has always risen above all challenges to emerge victorious.

Perhaps the fall of the the Soviets the mighty counterpart was the culmination for the righteous Americans, proven democracy and free market are what is working for America and right for the wold. But the 80s showcased the first of the challenges when the Japanese "shut up and work" attitude created a super-economy that rivaled the US, and Toyota became the poster-child of anti-Japanese bashing. Although Americans continued to upgrade their bigger and better lifestyle, there were obvious changes that moved farther away from the basics. Cheap labors were partly and slowly replaced by illegal immigrants for many jobs too menial and low-paying for the American youths, personal debts were rising to finance an increasingly expensive and materialistic lifestyle, national productivity shifted from basic manufacturing goods to become increasingly dependent on financial market and monetary policies, and Americans became increasingly reliant on cheap foreign imports. Up to now, the boomer-dominated politics have been resistant to change the easy-money spigot. The sense of superiority and entitlement persists, for as long as cheap oil and enough money support the urban sprawl, long commute, and job security, there is no issue important enough to change the comfortable lifestyle many see as the representation of the American ideals. Frugality and prudence is no longer the fundamental values, and in fact antagonistic of the "spend and waste" economy.

Entering the new millennium, Russia largely the former Soviets has recovered due to a booming oil industry, China and India with the world most abundant laborer resources are on pace to dominate manufacturing industries, and Brazil leads the emerging Latin American economies once thought fitful only for occasional market trades. Europe has not been lagging behind, and the united Union is now the world's most productive economy, relegating the US to second seat. Even Africa is breaking out of it perpetual poverty-stricken economies, with countries such as Ghana turning into a net producer much to the dislike of a meddling International Monetary Fund. The rest of the world, for the first time, is growing at the expense of the US economy.

Yet despite the the changing world, the optimistic and confident Americans held on to the same Boomeronomic psychic in belief of continuing prosperity. Over promised entitlements and benefits burden the system further, and rising debts riddle Americans underneath the wealth exterior - still there has not been much of willingness to reflect upon the needed change. The good time projected by boomers has entrenched into the American psychic too deep, and the belief in the supremacy of the US is taken on face value without adequate assessment and in the proper context. Generation X as well as Y with similar optimistic and entitlement psychic are facing a greatly different reality, most notably life has become too expensive beyond the reach of average young middle class'ers to start a young life with the same easy as their parents. America is now suffering from its own Boomernomics success, and arguably its negligence.

In perhaps the final Boomeronomic act, the US economic policy of the past decade switched to an overly heavy monetary stimulus, which, appropriately, also magnified its vulnerability. While even greater debts and risks may appear ludicrous in retrospect from the perspective of future generations, just about all gloated in easy money while the party lasted. Stimulating the economy with easy and easier money has turned into an addiction, and the easiest instant scheme for the politicians and the businessmen.

The heart of the US economy is still arguably strong, but the embedded flaws are emerging through the cracks. Ironically the well-situated boomers are the lucky ones likely to escape the consequence, but X, Y and later generations will certainly have to shoulder the burden. While it can easily be argued that the Boomeronomic values are not fundamentally representative of American ideals, the result of that admission will necessarily require a new construction from the later generations to steer straight again the political, economic and energy issues.

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